Solar Industry is Constantly Evolving
The solar industry is constantly evolving as regulation and policy changes, innovation in new solar and storage technology progresses, and the economic trends change (e.g. inflation, which significantly impacts solar financing). 2024 so far has been a mixed year for solar, as the impact from California’s NEM 3.0 policy shift has had a dramatic impact on solar. It can be challenging to unpack the current state of the solar market and its job opportunities, but here at WorkInSolar, we strive to give you the best and transparent information to understand the impact for your career. In this post, we’ll dive into one of the recent overblown and misrepresentative articles that was widely shared.
Sensationalist Solar Headlines
You may have seen the recent Time magazine article claiming the “Rooftop Solar Industry is on the verge of collapse” that has been widely shared on social media in the past week. Unfortunately, much of the media today is hyperbolic geared towards driving clicks and highlighting the worst possible outcomes that could theoretically occur vs. giving you a complete picture of what is happening.
The article certainly highlights some very real problems in the solar industry: overly aggressive sales representatives are overselling the energy efficiency of solar panels, NEM 3.0’s impact on California’s solar jobs, financing options for consumers can be confusing, and shoddy solar companies where the founders got rich quick and left their customers with malfunctioning solar panels.
Real Concerns in Solar
The reality is that with any exponentially growing industry such as solar today, there will be opportunists seeking to take advantage of the momentum. The Time article currently identifies some of these issues, but fails to represent and contextualize the broader state of the market. Let's dive into some of the major problems today and where the article has gaps.
Problems with Solar Sales Transparency
The article focused on anecdotal stories of overly aggressive sales representatives earning salaries into the hundreds of thousands of dollars and consumers that have received incorrect, or at best, incomplete information about their solar offerings. Unfortunately, this does happen in the industry. For those of you searching for solar sales jobs, as we mentioned in a recent blog post on entry-level sales roles, if something sounds too good to be true, it is probably because it isn’t true…
This concept also applies to solar consumers. If a door-to-door sales reps shows up at my door promising that I won’t have to pay an electricity bill in 2 years time and my installation will be fully subsidized, I should be very skeptical of the install.
However, what the article fails to contextualize and mention is that there are millions and millions of homeowners in the United States that have installed solar panels, and have seen dramatic reductions in the electricity bills. For every opaque rooftop sale in the solar industry, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of transparent and beneficial solar installations. The vast, vast majority of solar sales representatives are excited to share the benefits of solar and the best sale is one where both the buyer and the sales rep will win.
That doesn’t mean there won’t be hurdles along the way, and articles like Time’s do help in exposing malpractices that the industry needs to correct and call out
Over Financialization of Solar Panels
The article also calls out how Solar Sales has been overly financialized through loans that appear widely accessible, but may have hidden costs. Again, this emphasizes the importance of a transparent sales process. However, this issue also stems from the recent economic period we’ve lived through where there were effectively 0% interest rates. With the rapid rise in inflation over 2022, interest rates dramatically rose. This was a shock to the overall financial system, and made it much more challenging to secure loans across every industry, not just solar.
As we recover from the spike in inflation, and interest rates stabilize, we expect to see a recovery and an improvement in the transparency of loans. This will make it more important to have an honest conversation with customers about what they can expect their monthly payments to be and how long it will take them to recoup their investment in the solar installation
Public Solar Companies' Recent Performance
The article also charts public solar companies’ stock prices as a barometer of the overall solar industry. Companies like SunRun, Sunnova, and SunPower have in fact seen their stock prices drop dramatically from 2021. These companies have worked through challenges in recent years, but yet again, what the article fails to mention is that many stocks were massively overvalued in 2021 when they benefited by a 0% interest rate and investors updated how companies were valued. Demand for solar installations also skyrocketed with cheap monthly payments. Many of these companies were struggling to keep up with demand during this time period.
The truth is the companies like Sunnova and SunPower are still hiring for hundreds of roles across the country to keep up with their growth over time. That doesn’t mean that these companies are operating perfectly by any means, but it is a strong signal of the continued demand for solar in the United States
Bottom-line: Rooftop Solar Will Grow 2.5x by 2030
Shockingly, the most eye-opening stat is buried within the article that profoundly refutes the headline's claim that the rooftop solar industry is on the verge of collapse (as is often the case…).
“Though installations will decline in 2024, the number of homes with rooftop solar will increase from 4 million today to 10 million by 2030, according to Stephanie Bosh, vice president of communications for the Solar Energy Industries Association.”
That does not sound like an industry that is “on the verge of collapse” by any means. You will struggle to find any other significant market that will grow 2.5x in the next 6 years. Of course, these industry forecasts are not a guarantee by any means; there is a lot of hard work hundreds of thousands of solar workers will need to accomplish and there is innovation needed to improve the efficiency of solar and battery storage. What you can be sure of is that the United States is well on its path towards a solar revolution, making it a great time to consider a career in the industry even with minor headwinds affecting the industry today.
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